Table of Contents
Chapter 1 Sustainability Overlay Concept and Structure................. 1
Overlay Zoning Analogy.............................................................1
Overlay Criteria............................................................................2
Purpose.....................................................................................3
Applicability.............................................................................3
Specific Rules............................................................................4
PCE Breakdown Structure..........................................................5
Chapter 2 Summary for Policymakers: PCE Overlay......................... 7
Overview........................................................................................8
Content Analysis of the Population,
Climate Change and Energy (PCE) Overlay........................8
Overlay Scenarios..................................................................13
Overlay Summary..................................................................17
Policies to Complement the PCE Overlay...............................18
Government Policies.............................................................18
General Government Policies..............................................19
World Policies....................................................................... 20
Private Sector Policies...........................................................21
Investment Policies Considering Climate Change...........22
Program Policies....................................................................26
Section Iâ•… Population Overlay
Chapter 3 Population Constraint Overlay: Introduction................ 31
Chapter 4 Introduction to Demography........................................... 35
Thomas Robert Malthus............................................................36
Socialism......................................................................................37
Demographic Transition Stages...............................................38
Immigration and Migration.....................................................39
Chapter 5 World Population.............................................................. 41
World Population Growth....................................................... 42
Demographic Transitions.................................................... 43
Health and Mortality Transition........................................ 44
Fertility Transition............................................................... 46
Population Trends................................................................ 48
Regional Differences.............................................................51
Chapter 6 United States Population.................................................. 55
Overview of U.S. Population and Projections........................55
Hispanic Population..................................................................57
Racial Diversity in the United States.......................................59
United States in 2050................................................................ 60
Chapter 7 World Age Distribution and Sustainability.................... 63
Age Distributions...................................................................... 64
Sustainability: Carrying Capacity........................................... 68
Chapter 8 Population Policies and Dilemmas.................................. 73
Population Issues and Dilemmas.............................................73
Population Policies.....................................................................75
Section IIâ•… Climate Change Overlay
Chapter 9 Climate Change Constraint Overlay............................... 81
Introduction................................................................................81
Definitions.................................................................................. 84
Chapter 10 History and Background of the Science.......................... 87
Years 1824 to 1957..................................................................... 88
Keeling Curve: 1958.................................................................. 90
Chapter 11 Climate Manifestations.................................................... 93
Greenhouse Effect......................................................................93
Svante Arrhenius Revisited..................................................94
Energy Balance...................................................................... 96
Carbon Cycle..........................................................................98
Historic CO2 Levels...............................................................98
CO2/Temperature Sensitivity............................................ 100
The Sun......................................................................................102
Milankovitch Cycles............................................................103
Sunspots and Solar Flares...................................................104
Solar Insolation: Amount of Sunlight...............................106
Oceans........................................................................................108
Role of the Oceans...............................................................109
Temperature and Heat Content.........................................110
Chemistry of the Oceans....................................................113
Temperature..............................................................................115
Global Temperature Data...................................................115
Forecast Temperatures........................................................118
Temperature Patterns..........................................................119
Temperature Extremes........................................................119
United States Temperatures...............................................119
Cryosphere: The Arctic and the Antarctic........................... 120
Arctic.................................................................................... 122
Importance of the Arctic................................................... 123
Arctic Warming.................................................................. 123
Permafrost............................................................................125
Arctic Ocean........................................................................127
Ice Extent and Volume........................................................127
History of Sea Ice Melt........................................................129
Arctic Oil Resources............................................................130
Arctic Ocean Highways......................................................130
Greenland.............................................................................131
Interest in Greenland..........................................................131
Temperatures in Greenland...............................................132
Greenland Ice Loss..............................................................132
Antarctica.............................................................................133
East Antarctica.................................................................... 134
West Antarctica...................................................................135
Pine Island.......................................................................135
Causes of Melting............................................................136
Glaciers and Ice Sheets........................................................137
Chapter 12 Climate Change Overlays............................................... 139
Indicators of a Warming World.............................................139
Sea Levels...................................................................................141
Atmosphere: Weather Events..................................................146
Precipitation.........................................................................146
Storms....................................................................................147
Arctic Linkages to Storms..................................................148
Droughts...............................................................................150
Ecosystem Impacts..............................................................151
Chapter 13 Planning for a Different Future: An Overlay of Adaptation and Mitigation.............. 153
Tragedy of the Commons....................................................... 154
Planning for a Warming Future: Mitigation of
CO2 Emissions..........................................................................158
International Actions..........................................................158
Actions Required to Meet Mitigation Objectives...........162
IPCC Mitigation Solutions.................................................163
Stabilization Wedges...........................................................163
Other Emissions Mitigation Alternatives........................168
Planning for a Warming Future: Adaptation.......................170
Adaptation Activities and Planning.................................170
Adaptation in the United States........................................172
Adaptive Capacity and Response......................................173
Climate Policy: Both Mitigation and Adaptation................175
Adaptation and Mitigation Interrelationships................175
Mitigation and Adaptation Portfolios..............................177
Costs versus Benefits...........................................................179
Climate Change Denial.......................................................182
Section IIIâ•…E nergy Overlay
Chapter 14 Energy Constraint Overlay............................................. 187
Introduction to Energy............................................................188
SWOT Analyses........................................................................195
Chapter 15 Coal.................................................................................. 197
Formation and Discovery........................................................197
SWOT Analysis: Coal..............................................................198
Strengths...............................................................................198
Weaknesses.......................................................................... 200
Opportunities...................................................................... 202
Threats.................................................................................. 203
Chapter 16 Liquid Fuels..................................................................... 207
Formation and Discovery....................................................... 207
Production and Forecast........................................................ 208
SWOT Analysis: Oil Industry.................................................214
Strengths...............................................................................215
Weaknesses...........................................................................218
Peak Oil............................................................................218
Oil Prices..........................................................................221
Synthesis of Weakness.................................................. 222
Opportunities...................................................................... 225
Threats.................................................................................. 226
Chapter 17 Natural Gas...................................................................... 229
Formation and Discovery....................................................... 229
Natural Gas Usage................................................................... 230
Shale Gas....................................................................................231
SWOT Analysis: Natural Gas Industry................................ 234
Strengths.............................................................................. 234
Weaknesses.......................................................................... 236
Opportunities.......................................................................239
Clathrates: Methane Hydrate........................................239
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Technology..................241
Threats...................................................................................241
Chapter 18 Nuclear Energy................................................................ 243
History and Background........................................................ 243
SWOT Analysis: Nuclear Energy.......................................... 245
Strengths.............................................................................. 245
Weaknesses.......................................................................... 248
Opportunities.......................................................................253
Threats...................................................................................255
Chapter 19 Renewable Energy Sources............................................. 257
Introduction..............................................................................257
Overview....................................................................................259
Chapter 20 Solar Power...................................................................... 263
The Sun..................................................................................... 264
Solar Technologies................................................................... 266
Solar—Photovoltaic Systems............................................. 267
Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) Power Systems..... 268
SWOT Analysis: Solar Power..................................................270
Strengths...............................................................................271
Weaknesses...........................................................................272
Opportunities.......................................................................273
Threats...................................................................................275
Chapter 21 Wind Energy.................................................................... 277
Overview................................................................................... 277
SWOT Analysis: Wind Power................................................ 283
Strengths.............................................................................. 284
Weaknesses.......................................................................... 284
Opportunities...................................................................... 286
Threats.................................................................................. 287
Chapter 22 Geothermal Energy......................................................... 289
Formation and Discovery....................................................... 290
SWOT Analysis: Geothermal Energy....................................293
Strengths.............................................................................. 294
Weaknesses...........................................................................295
Lack of Available and Reliable Resource
Information.....................................................................295
High Exploration Risks and High Up-Front Costs......295
Siting, Leasing, and Permitting Issues........................ 296
High Local Impact on the Environment.................... 296
Access to Transmission Infrastructure....................... 297
Absence of National Policy........................................... 297
Opportunities...................................................................... 297
Threats.................................................................................. 298
Chapter 23 Biomass Energy............................................................... 299
Overview................................................................................... 299
Biomass..................................................................................... 300
Biofuels.......................................................................................301
SWOT Analysis: Biomass....................................................... 303
Strengths.............................................................................. 304
Weaknesses.......................................................................... 305
Opportunities...................................................................... 306
Threats.................................................................................. 308
Chapter 24 Hydropower Systems........................................................311
Basic Hydroelectric Systems...................................................311
Other Hydropower Systems....................................................313
Tide Energy Systems...........................................................314
Wave Energy Systems..........................................................314
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC)...................315
Entropy Systems...................................................................316
SWOT Analysis: Hydropower................................................317
Strengths...............................................................................317
Weaknesses...........................................................................318
Ecosystem Damage and Loss of Land..........................319
Flow Shortage................................................................. 320
Methane Emissions (from Reservoirs)........................ 320
Population Relocation................................................... 320
Failure Hazard.................................................................321
Construction Costs and Schedules...............................321
Opportunities.......................................................................322
Threats...................................................................................322
Chapter 25 Renewable Energy Sources Summary............................ 325
Renewables Overview..............................................................325
U.S. Renewables........................................................................327
Chapter 26 Program Planning in an Energy Constrained and Uncertain World........... 329
Introduction..............................................................................329
Transportation Energy Sector................................................330
Energy General Sector.............................................................333
Section IVâ•… Supporting Appendices
Appendix A: The Scientific Community Positions on
Climate Change and Global Warming.......................... 337
Group 1: Renowned Scientific Organizations and
Their Conclusions on Climate Change..................................337
Group 2: Other Scientific Society Components of the
Consensus Position................................................................. 340
National Science Academies of the G8+5 Nations
(Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy,
India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the
United Kingdom, and the United States).....................340
Ecological Society of America.......................................... 340
American Physical Society................................................ 341
International Council of Academies of
Engineering and Technological Sciences (CAETS)....... 341
Network of African Science Academies.......................... 341
European Physical Society................................................ 341
European Science Foundation Position Paper............... 342
Federation of Australian Scientific and
Technological Societies Policy Statement........................ 342
European Federation of Geologists Position Paper....... 342
Geological Society of Australia Position Statement....... 342
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
(IUGG) Resolution............................................................. 343
Royal Meteorological Society (UK)................................. 343
American Public Health Association Policy Statement.... 343
Australian Medical Association....................................... 343
Group 3: Faith-Based Organizations Supporting the
Consensus Position................................................................. 344
Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Vatican, Rome,
May 11, 2011........................................................................ 344
Society of Friends Statement on Global Climate
Change................................................................................. 344
American Baptist Churches.............................................. 345
Unitarian Universalist Association of Congregations..... 346
Threat of Global Warming/Climate Change............. 346
General Board of the United Methodist Church........... 347
Advocacy Focus Issues: Climate Change................... 347
Central Conference of American Rabbis........................ 348
Other Faith-Based Statements.......................................... 349
Appendix B: Statistical Inference..................................................................351
Appendix C: Risk Management............................................................ 355
Introduction..............................................................................355
Definitions................................................................................ 356
Risk Management Process......................................................357
Risk Identification...............................................................359
Risk Assessment.................................................................. 360
Developing a Risk Response..............................................361
Risk Control........................................................................ 362
Appendix D: Geology and Climate Change......................................... 365
Geology Society of London Position Statement.................. 365
Acronyms and Abbreviations............................................................. 369
Glossary................................................................................................ 373
Bibliography......................................................................................... 375
Preface
For several years, in addition to extensive work in project management, I have been active as an instructor in adult education programs for a local community college and making presentations to local churches and civic groups on the topics addressed in this book. I have been teaching short courses exploring issues in oil and energy, global warming, and climate change. It has been illuminating to see how poorly informed people are on these major issues, considering the current and potential impacts on their lives.
I am active in volunteer work for my local county government where I led the development of the current county Comprehensive Plan and was active in the revision of the current zoning ordinances. Some of my activities were the development of zoning overlays for the historic district, the protection of land for reservoirs, for highway traffic flow, and other special purposes. The concept of a set of sustainability overlays addressing the new triple constraints of population, climate change, and energy applied to the existing project management triple constraints of cost, schedule, and quality/performance arose from that experience. This book is geared toward two segments of the professional population:
first, the 350,000 members of the Project Management Institute (PMI®) and hundreds of thousands of other project, program, and portfolio managers who are just beginning to realize that the historic planning paradigm has changed, but don’t have a reliable source or the time to track down the facts:* and second, the many managers who are responsible for organization strategic plans who normally would use extrapolations of historic data as their bases for projecting into the future. This book provides a series of overlays of major changes occurring in population, climate, and energy areas that are not indexed to history but to changes currently occurring that collectively represent a major turning point in world use of resources and the necessity to seek sustainability. This book is also geared toward the grandchildren and great-grandchildren of these managers who will be living in a world that depends significantly upon decisions made or not made now. The question is: How well informed are managers on the three topics of population, climate change, and energy? And, how are they incorporating the current major departures from historical trends into their planning? Sound bites on the topics are broadcast every day, but they seem contradictory, and for most people are just treated as noise. It is apparent from discussions at the PMI meetings and with managers that their horizons need intelligent expansion if they are to make decisions that depend on assumptions as to the stability of the assumed and current life-cycle environment.
The papers on “sustainability” in the PMI publications primarily address the use of renewable resources on projects and “green” projects and do not often address the significance of finite limits of key resources or the changes in consumption that must occur. The decades of the 2010s and especially the 2020s and beyond are potentially periods of great opportunity as well as great stress and threat due to unique and dramatic changes in population, climate, availability of oil and natural gas, and sources of energy. The demographic, economic, and geopolitical impacts are expected to be considerable and variable. Current scientific data and projections indicate the coming two to three decades will be a period of transition to even greater changes later this century.
These issues are important to managers since most life cycles of programs are 5–10 years or longer, and portfolio and strategic planning managers must look beyond that horizon to a world we hope is sustainable.
Infrastructure projects commonly have 50-year life expectancies. The new triple constraints will become more consequential and will have an increasingly significant impact on programs in decades to come. Government and industry responses, as the likely scenarios play out, will create opportunities for portfolio managers that will be implemented through the actions of project and program managers.
The aim of this book is to provide a rational basis for approaching the problems that program and portfolio managers are facing and will face in the future from the three issues of population, climate change, and energy. This is simply risk management where the planner evaluates the likely impact of these issues and thereby makes a more rational decision. This should enable them to take advantage of the coming and ongoing changes in their life-cycle planning and portfolio selection.
Acknowledgments
In the preparation of this book I wish to express my appreciation and acknowledge the support received from Allan R. Kostreba, senior principal, acquisition and software economics, Noblis, Falls Church, Virginia; from William Kirby, a retired National Science Foundation senior manager; from Gregory T. Haugan Jr., a senior manager in the Department of Homeland Security; from Lee Allain, systems engineer and retired CEO of MicroNetworks Corp. of Worcester, Massachusetts; and Dr. Lynton S. Land, professor emeritus, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Texas; and from my wife, Susan, who helped with the editing and research.
All provided comments and recommendations to my draft and most of their comments were incorporated. I should point out that if there are any errors, they are mine. In addition, I appreciate the assistance provided by John Wyzalek, Robin Lloyd-Starkes and Joselyn Banks-Kyle of Taylor & Francis Group;
and I wish to thank John Cook of SkepticScience.com for the use of several of his graphics.
